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The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that consumers’ median expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while longer-term expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside higher income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that euro-area consumers’ median inflation expectations for the next 12 months edged up to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations three and five years ahead remained unchanged. The survey also recorded a weaker outlook for economic growth and a higher expected unemployment rate, providing the ECB with a monthly gauge of household views relevant to its policy analysis.
Median perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%, the ECB reported. Expectations for inflation three years ahead held at 2.9%, and expectations five years ahead remained at 2.5%. Uncertainty around inflation expectations over the next year increased slightly and remained above the level recorded before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, according to the release.
Consumers’ expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are survey responses about nominal growth, not adjusted for inflation.
The expected economic growth rate over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2%. Respondents put the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead at 11.3%, up from 11.0%; their perceived current rate was 10.6%. For housing, expected home-price growth over the next year increased to 3.5% from 3.4%, while expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%. The ECB also said the net share of households reporting tighter credit access, and expecting tighter access, increased compared with August.
Households See More Price and Job Pressure
The results offer a snapshot of how consumers expect prices, jobs, borrowing and household finances to develop. Near-term inflation expectations moved higher, but the unchanged three- and five-year medians show no change in those longer-horizon measures in this survey. These figures are expectations reported by consumers; they are not a forecast issued by the ECB or a measure of inflation that has already occurred.
The combination of weaker expected growth and higher expected unemployment points to a more pessimistic household outlook for the coming year. At the same time, respondents anticipated faster nominal income and spending growth. The gaps between income groups are also relevant: lower-income households reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations, expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates, and anticipated faster home-price growth than respondents in the highest income group.
The ECB uses the survey to complement other information for policy analysis. Its results can help officials monitor household perceptions, but the release does not say that this survey alone will determine any policy decision.
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How the ECB Survey Is Collected
The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults across 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The ECB says its headline statistics generally refer to the 2% winsorised mean unless otherwise indicated. The release presents several results as medians, including the inflation figures. The survey’s findings do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff, the central bank said. Aggregate results by country and for the euro area are published through the ECB Data Portal and its website.
““The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.””
— European Central Bank
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Survey Signals, Not Economic Outcomes
The survey records household perceptions and expectations; it does not establish what inflation, growth, unemployment, home prices or mortgage rates will actually be. The release provides aggregate results and notes differences by income and age, but it does not identify the reasons behind each respondent’s answers. The cited increases and decreases compare September with August and should not be read as longer-term trends by themselves.
The release says inflation uncertainty remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, but does not quantify that difference in the supplied summary. It also reports tighter credit access on a net basis without giving a percentage-point figure there. The results do not establish how households’ expectations will affect future spending or the ECB’s policy decisions.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the next Consumer Expectations Survey results, covering October 2026, for 27 November 2026. The September release says the underlying microdata are available through the survey’s data and methodological information section, allowing readers to examine the data behind the aggregate figures.
Until the next release, the September results remain the latest monthly survey snapshot. Any assessment of whether these expectations persist will require subsequent survey waves and other economic data; the ECB has not indicated in this release what policy response, if any, it will make based on the findings.
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Key Questions
What happened in the ECB’s September 2026 consumer survey?
The ECB reported slightly higher median near-term inflation expectations, weaker expected economic growth and higher expected unemployment compared with August. Longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged.
What did consumers expect inflation to be?
Median expectations were 3.1% over the next 12 months, 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead. The first figure rose from 3.0% in August; the two longer-term figures did not change.
Did the survey show a worsening labour-market outlook?
Respondents expected the unemployment rate in 12 months to be 11.3%, up from 11.0% in August. The ECB said consumers continued to expect a rate only slightly above their perceived current rate of 10.6%.
When will the ECB publish the next survey results?
The ECB scheduled its October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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